Upper low currently across the desert southwest will progress eastward through the period and be positioned across Northern MS/AL by Monday morning. This feature will support the development of a low pressure system across the southern Plains and cold front which will move east as well and reach the western FL panhandle by daybreak Monday. Showers and storms will develop Saturday night out west then in mass Sunday into Sunday night. Given the amount of shear (not great cape) there is a risk for severe weather across SE AL and the FL panhandle where damaging winds will be the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the aforementioned area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 2-3 inches across Southeast Alabama and SWGA down to 1-2 inches across the FL counties.
As the prior mentioned system begins to exit the region, moisture wrapping behind the low will maintain a chance of rain in our northern areas through Tuesday night. After that, rain chances will remain low until the next system approaches on Friday. Current model guidance for this system has some disagreement, so rain chances are limited to chance to reflect the lower confidence at this time. Highs throughout the period will stay in the upper 70s, with lows cooling from the lower 60s to the 50s by the end of the period.