This summer in SW Georgia we have had plenty of chances for rain and have seen numerous thunderstorms but we are still dry and could use some rain.For the months of June, July and August (so far) we are better than 6 1/2 inches behind in rainfall and July saw just over a half an inch for the whole month.Since January 1st we have received more than 24 inches of rain in Albany which sounds like a lot but we are nearly 8 inches below average to date.As of August 5th, The US Drought Monitor has the area listed as abnormally dry with areas in moderate drought conditions.
Just three months ago about 4% of the area had dry conditions compared to about 24% as of August 5th. Plus, while the area considered abnormally dry has dropped off since last week, the moderate drought area has increased.While this week should see some rain, our rain chances after Tuesday are in line with average rainfall potential for this time of year and we could use more than that to help our drought wows.Over the next two weeks or so the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA gives SW Georgia a 30% chance of above average rainfall.
While this could help in the short term the one to three month outlook from the CPC gives us a 50/50 chance of above average rainfall.
This could all change for a wetter pattern over the next few months in into the fall and winter.The National Weather Service has indicated that a weak to moderate El Nio event could emerge in the few months and that could impact our rainfall in the southeastern US.The latest from the Climate Prediction Center concerning the development of El Nio this fall and winter give that occurrence a 65% chance.The chances of an extremely wet fall or winter are about 2 times higher than normal during El Nio and that could just make the difference.A El Nio event could be the rain maker we need here in SW Georgia.